Seven years ago, a mere eight words to ignite a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position and Settled Issues
Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on the EU
However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing youths can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.
David Lammy muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.
An Alarming Strategy & Geopolitical Calculations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It contains a single mention to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.
However, instead of deciding that this renders the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018
All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Danger & A Wise Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.
It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
