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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.